Sunday, September 12, 2010
NFL Preview, 2010, the NFC
See you in the NFC Championship Game...
NFC South
Home of the defending champs.
New Orleans Saints over 10.5 wins
They have only the faintest suggestion of a running game. But Drew Brees is damn good, and he has a whole lot of receivers. His number three guy, Robert Meachum caught nine touchdowns!!! The Saints defense pairs well with Brees because they are at their best when they can pin their ears back and rush the passer.
Atlanta Falcons over 9 wins (Wild Card)
We like Michael Turner coming back off injury. We think that the Falcons will get four relatively easy wins out of the Panthers and Bucs. The Clarion Content is not as high on Matt Ryan as a lot of other folks, but we think he can be a steady, if not spectacular contributor.
Carolina Panthers under 7.5
The Panthers season starts and ends with the quarterback. Matt Moore does not inspire any confidence here in Durham simply because he beat up a few teams after the Panthers seasons was over last year. Losing Julius Peppers was addition by subtraction and the Panthers D-line is better than people realize. They still don't have a number two receiver. We like the one, two punch at running back. They have a good coach in John Fox, but he is a lame duck. Ultimately, it comes back to the QB, and there is no way Matt Moore leads them to a .500 record.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers under 5.5
This team is going nowhere. Head Coach Raheem Morris is in waaaaaay over his head. Starting Quarterback Josh Freeman looks lost and overwhelmed as well. Cadillac Williams coming off of about six knee surgeries does not inspire confidence. This could be a 2 and 14 season. Enjoy the Rays post-season, Tampa, you fair-weather fans, you!
NFC North
Four high profile quarterbacks.
The Green Bay Packers over 9.5
They are prohibitive favorites in this division. Aaron Rodgers is getting very close to entering the top tier of quarterbacks. There defense has shown flashes, it reminds us of the Saints, opportunistic sacks and turnovers when their offense gets them ahead.
The Minnesota Vikings under 9.5
The Sidney Rice injury hurts them badly. Percy Harvin is a knucklehead who is not prepared to be Favre's number one wide receiver. Luckily they have Adrian Peterson, as well as stout offensive and defensive lines. Unfortunately, they also have the horrifyingly bad Brad Childress. Will Favre be back next year?
The Detroit Lions over 5
They have got a tough defensive line, led by Kyle Vanden Bosch and Ndamukong Suh. Matt Stafford should improve at least slightly. They have some weapons for him, Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson. Javod Best will be decent. They will thrill their fans early and fade toward the end.
The Chicago Bears under 8
Jay Cutler blows and is getting worse. He is approaching the Jeff George depths for least effective big arm quarterback ever. Million dollar arm, ten cent brain, if the cliche fits... Mike Martz, who is a riverboat gambler, is the worst possible offensive coordinator for him, takes lots and lots risks, requires lots and lots of good reads. The Bears cannot count on Matt Forte to dominate. Their defense has aged and gotten very brittle. This is Lovie Smith's last year in Chicago. Could be a 3 and 13 season.
NFC West
Not a good division.
San Francisco 49ers over 8.5
Mike Singletary has worked wonders by the Bay. If they had any kind of quarterback at all, they might be a Super Bowl threat. Unfortunately, Alex Smith could not throw a ball through a plate glass window. Frank Gore is a very solid running back. Patrick Willis is in the conversation for the best defensive player in the league.
Arizona Cardinals over 7.5
They are going to miss Kurt Warner and Carlos Dansby, not mention the toughest wide receiver in the league, Anaquan Boldin. Larry Fitzgerald is much less of a weapon without Warner throwing to him and Boldin helping to draw defenders to the other side of the field. We think Beanie Wells will be much improved, though he starts the year banged up. The bottom of the division is awful, but the Cards won't sneak into the playoffs.
Seattle Seahawks under 7.5
How can the Matt Hasselback era not be over yet? Really? Why trade for Charlie Whitehurst then? No matter, Pete Carrol will likely have growing pains adjusting to the NFL from USC. The offensive line is in disarray. They are bringing back Lions' bust Mike Williams who has been out of football for the last two years. Why? Their defense... we like linebackers Lofa Tatupu and Aaron Curry, but there are nowhere near enough playmakers and ball hawks on this team.
St. Louis Rams under 5
They are definitely in the running for the worst team in the league. Sam Bradford is overrated and has no targets. Seriously, name a Rams wideout. Steven Jackson has got to be getting tired of people beating the heck out of him. The offensive line is a sieve. Defensive end Chris Long is heading towards first round bust status, meaning there is only one above average player on this defense, safety, Oshiomogho Atogwe.
NFC East
Not as a good a division as you might think...Parity doesn't equality quality.
Dallas Cowboys over 9.5
The Cowboys biggest question mark, before the playoffs start, is their offensive line. They have no dominant offensive lineman. This was one of their cornerstones in their Super Bowl era. They do have two solid running backs and an excellent regular season quarterback in Tony Romo. Can they get enough pass rush to cover for their mediocre corners? As a squad, they are just barely better than a declining NFC East. Their coach and QB have a history of early playoff exits.
New York Giants over 8.5 (Wild Card)
They will suffer from the aging of their offensive line and the injury decline of Brandon Jacobs. Ahmad Bradshaw is not strong enough to carry the load. Eli Manning is good and has a passel of talented young receivers. He is much better when he is paired with dominant running game. (Who isn't?) Their defensive line looks great, but their linebackers and corners have some question marks. Everyone is acting like safety Kenny Phillips is 100% back. Will he be? We are waiting to see it on the field. Not a team you want to face in a first round playoff game.
Washington Redskins under 7.5
Hey Philly fans, we still love Donovan McNabb! He is injury prone, but will appreciate playing with Santana Moss. Unfortunately, he has no other wideouts. (Still that's one more than they used to give him in Philly.) How old is Joey Galloway? 40? 50? The Redskins also have a running backs with tons of mileage Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson. The defense is the same story, aging, big name guys. Can they be productive? Does future Hall of Famer London Fletcher have anything left? Can they get anything out of Albert Hanesworth? 7, 8, 9 wins would be a success for start for Shannahan.
Philadelphia Eagles under 8.5
It is all about the quarterback in Philadelphia. Did they make the right call selecting Kevin Kolb over Donovan? We are not sold. The Eagles have had a habit of getting rid of their vets a year or two too early. That said, it was probably time to let Brian Westbrook go after a great career. However, they did not find a replacement that we are impressed with, LeSean McCoy averaged only 4.1 yards a carry while rushing for 650 yards total last season. Blech! Yes, DeSean Jackson has breakaway speed, but the rest of their wideouts are very average. Andy Reid is an awful game manager. The Eagles look vulnerable to a big fall to the Clarion Content. Say about 6 and 10...
We will take the Saints over the Packers in a shootout of an NFC Championship Game.
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