Baseball contenders not selling tickets

Yesterday saw a highly publicized flap, Tampa Bay Rays stars David Price and Evan Longoria criticized fans of the team for not showing up to big games. The blowback was intense. Although the team is in first place and near clinching a division title, the Rays turnstiles have seen barely more than a trickle.

Tampa-St. Pete is a terrible baseball market. Transplants to Florida have loyalties to their original teams. The stadium is awful. But the real multiplier effect has been the great economic malaise, which has hit the area with a gut punch. While we hope the Rays move to Durham soon, we recognize that this season, the Rays are not alone.

The New York Times notes several contenders are playing to 4/5ths empty parks; besides the Rays, the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds have been playing in front of far less than packed houses down the stretch. Overall baseball attendance is down for a third straight season. As America stumbles into what may be a lost decade, attendance may never again reach its previous heights.

Among the clubs with the most notable attendance declines the New York Mets, who cannot draw despite billions of dollars poured into a new stadium. Also seeing major sales decreases Chicago and Los Angeles, where the Cubs and the Dodgers have had disappointing seasons. Part of the more permanent structural adjustment can be seen in cities like Baltimore, Cleveland and Toronto, where attendance has been slipping for several years. Once home to new marquis parks, those stadiums are now more than ten years old and baseball's revenue model assures these lower income teams endless second-tier status. Rather than try to revive their moribund clubs, these franchises (and the Rays) may opt to follow the model pioneered by Kansas City and Pittsburgh. The model, as Deadspin revealed last month, is permanently putrid franchises whose owners see more profit in losing than attempting to win through increased payroll expenditure on player salary.

The Clarion Content has been arguing that sports' comeuppance will be one of the biggest effects of the collapse of the American economy. The tremors are starting. The richest owners and teams will not want to continue subdividing their profits with those who do not even make a serious effort to compete. We would predict that baseball contraction will see four to six less Major League franchises by the end of this decade.

Streaming hockey

Our local Carolina Hurricanes are leading the N.H.L. into a new 21st century era and model of sports broadcasting delivery. The New York Times reports that the Canes are live-streaming all of their preseason games on broadband this month; by using their in-house video feed and the play-by-play from their radio broadcasts. The NHL has seen the light, the groundswell of positive response from the fanbase, and plans to follow suit. The Canes home market is the technologically savvy triangle between Durham, Raleigh and Chapel Hill, N.C. The N.H.L.'s chief operating officer, John Collins, says the league is close to an agreement under which many of its 24 U.S. based teams would provide broadband and wireless live-streaming of games in local markets.

Read more here in the Triangle Business Journal.

NFL Ticket follow-up

The Clarion Content, long believers that American sport is in the process of getting its economic comeuppance as part of a larger national economic shudder, saw this note today.

The San Diego Chargers home opener, against the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday, will not be shown on local television after they failed to sell out a home game for the first time since 2004.

Even the NFL is not immune to economic malaise.

The ACC blows, again

Early leader for ACC player of the year? Duke's Sean Renfree

Once again the ACC football programs started the season highly regarded, five teams ranked in the top 25. There is exactly one left, Miami at #17. The Clarion Content has beat this drum for ages, but expansion not only hurt the existing ACC football programs, it dragged perennial national football powerhouses Florida State and Miami down to the ACC's level: craptastic.

This week saw a plethora of losses for the ACC. Miami, formerly known as the "U", lost on the road to #2, Ohio State. Back in the day, this would have been a speed match-up, and Miami would have blown by Ohio State. Recruiting in Miami is not the same since they joined the ACC.

Florida State got spanked at #10 Oklahoma. We guess classlessly running Bobby Bowden out of town did not do them any good.

Georgia Tech helped Kansas break an eight game losing streak. The week previous Kansas and Clarion Content fave, Turner Gill, could not beat North Dakota State, managing only three points. Georgia Tech was the cure they needed.

Virginia Tech coming off a thrilling game, but last minute loss, to BCS pretender Boise State, got beat by Division I-AA James Madison. AT HOME!

League doormat Virginia actually had a good showing, losing a close game to a down USC program. North Carolina State won at Central Florida.

Not very impressive as a league. Why do people keep buying into ACC Football? It is far and away the worst BCS conference.

NFL Preview, 2010, the AFC

The AFC is far superior to the NFC this year...

South
Indy over 11
Tennessee over 8.5 (Wild Card)
Houston under 8
Jacksonville under 7

North
Baltimore over 10
Cincinnati over 7.5 (Wild Card)
Pittsburgh under 9
Cleveland over 5.5

West
San Diego over 11
Denver over 7.5
Oakland over 6
Kansas City under 6.5

East
New England over 9.5
Miami over 8.5
NY Jets under 9.5
Buffalo over 5.5

New England over Tennessee in the AFC Title Game

NFL Preview, 2010, the NFC

See you in the NFC Championship Game...


NFC South
Home of the defending champs.

New Orleans Saints over 10.5 wins

They have only the faintest suggestion of a running game. But Drew Brees is damn good, and he has a whole lot of receivers. His number three guy, Robert Meachum caught nine touchdowns!!! The Saints defense pairs well with Brees because they are at their best when they can pin their ears back and rush the passer.

Atlanta Falcons over 9 wins (Wild Card)

We like Michael Turner coming back off injury. We think that the Falcons will get four relatively easy wins out of the Panthers and Bucs. The Clarion Content is not as high on Matt Ryan as a lot of other folks, but we think he can be a steady, if not spectacular contributor.

Carolina Panthers under 7.5

The Panthers season starts and ends with the quarterback. Matt Moore does not inspire any confidence here in Durham simply because he beat up a few teams after the Panthers seasons was over last year. Losing Julius Peppers was addition by subtraction and the Panthers D-line is better than people realize. They still don't have a number two receiver. We like the one, two punch at running back. They have a good coach in John Fox, but he is a lame duck. Ultimately, it comes back to the QB, and there is no way Matt Moore leads them to a .500 record.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers under 5.5

This team is going nowhere. Head Coach Raheem Morris is in waaaaaay over his head. Starting Quarterback Josh Freeman looks lost and overwhelmed as well. Cadillac Williams coming off of about six knee surgeries does not inspire confidence. This could be a 2 and 14 season. Enjoy the Rays post-season, Tampa, you fair-weather fans, you!


NFC North
Four high profile quarterbacks.

The Green Bay Packers over 9.5

They are prohibitive favorites in this division. Aaron Rodgers is getting very close to entering the top tier of quarterbacks. There defense has shown flashes, it reminds us of the Saints, opportunistic sacks and turnovers when their offense gets them ahead.

The Minnesota Vikings under 9.5

The Sidney Rice injury hurts them badly. Percy Harvin is a knucklehead who is not prepared to be Favre's number one wide receiver. Luckily they have Adrian Peterson, as well as stout offensive and defensive lines. Unfortunately, they also have the horrifyingly bad Brad Childress. Will Favre be back next year?

The Detroit Lions over 5

They have got a tough defensive line, led by Kyle Vanden Bosch and Ndamukong Suh. Matt Stafford should improve at least slightly. They have some weapons for him, Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson. Javod Best will be decent. They will thrill their fans early and fade toward the end.

The Chicago Bears under 8

Jay Cutler blows and is getting worse. He is approaching the Jeff George depths for least effective big arm quarterback ever. Million dollar arm, ten cent brain, if the cliche fits... Mike Martz, who is a riverboat gambler, is the worst possible offensive coordinator for him, takes lots and lots risks, requires lots and lots of good reads. The Bears cannot count on Matt Forte to dominate. Their defense has aged and gotten very brittle. This is Lovie Smith's last year in Chicago. Could be a 3 and 13 season.


NFC West
Not a good division.

San Francisco 49ers over 8.5

Mike Singletary has worked wonders by the Bay. If they had any kind of quarterback at all, they might be a Super Bowl threat. Unfortunately, Alex Smith could not throw a ball through a plate glass window. Frank Gore is a very solid running back. Patrick Willis is in the conversation for the best defensive player in the league.

Arizona Cardinals over 7.5

They are going to miss Kurt Warner and Carlos Dansby, not mention the toughest wide receiver in the league, Anaquan Boldin. Larry Fitzgerald is much less of a weapon without Warner throwing to him and Boldin helping to draw defenders to the other side of the field. We think Beanie Wells will be much improved, though he starts the year banged up. The bottom of the division is awful, but the Cards won't sneak into the playoffs.

Seattle Seahawks under 7.5

How can the Matt Hasselback era not be over yet? Really? Why trade for Charlie Whitehurst then? No matter, Pete Carrol will likely have growing pains adjusting to the NFL from USC. The offensive line is in disarray. They are bringing back Lions' bust Mike Williams who has been out of football for the last two years. Why? Their defense... we like linebackers Lofa Tatupu and Aaron Curry, but there are nowhere near enough playmakers and ball hawks on this team.

St. Louis Rams under 5

They are definitely in the running for the worst team in the league. Sam Bradford is overrated and has no targets. Seriously, name a Rams wideout. Steven Jackson has got to be getting tired of people beating the heck out of him. The offensive line is a sieve. Defensive end Chris Long is heading towards first round bust status, meaning there is only one above average player on this defense, safety, Oshiomogho Atogwe.


NFC East
Not as a good a division as you might think...Parity doesn't equality quality.

Dallas Cowboys over 9.5

The Cowboys biggest question mark, before the playoffs start, is their offensive line. They have no dominant offensive lineman. This was one of their cornerstones in their Super Bowl era. They do have two solid running backs and an excellent regular season quarterback in Tony Romo. Can they get enough pass rush to cover for their mediocre corners? As a squad, they are just barely better than a declining NFC East. Their coach and QB have a history of early playoff exits.

New York Giants over 8.5 (Wild Card)

They will suffer from the aging of their offensive line and the injury decline of Brandon Jacobs. Ahmad Bradshaw is not strong enough to carry the load. Eli Manning is good and has a passel of talented young receivers. He is much better when he is paired with dominant running game. (Who isn't?) Their defensive line looks great, but their linebackers and corners have some question marks. Everyone is acting like safety Kenny Phillips is 100% back. Will he be? We are waiting to see it on the field. Not a team you want to face in a first round playoff game.

Washington Redskins under 7.5

Hey Philly fans, we still love Donovan McNabb! He is injury prone, but will appreciate playing with Santana Moss. Unfortunately, he has no other wideouts. (Still that's one more than they used to give him in Philly.) How old is Joey Galloway? 40? 50? The Redskins also have a running backs with tons of mileage Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson. The defense is the same story, aging, big name guys. Can they be productive? Does future Hall of Famer London Fletcher have anything left? Can they get anything out of Albert Hanesworth? 7, 8, 9 wins would be a success for start for Shannahan.

Philadelphia Eagles under 8.5

It is all about the quarterback in Philadelphia. Did they make the right call selecting Kevin Kolb over Donovan? We are not sold. The Eagles have had a habit of getting rid of their vets a year or two too early. That said, it was probably time to let Brian Westbrook go after a great career. However, they did not find a replacement that we are impressed with, LeSean McCoy averaged only 4.1 yards a carry while rushing for 650 yards total last season. Blech! Yes, DeSean Jackson has breakaway speed, but the rest of their wideouts are very average. Andy Reid is an awful game manager. The Eagles look vulnerable to a big fall to the Clarion Content. Say about 6 and 10...

We will take the Saints over the Packers in a shootout of an NFC Championship Game.

KD Crushes in the World's Semis

Kevin Durant had a monstrous semifinal game as Coach Mike Krzyzewski's Team USA cruised past Lithuania, 89-74. Durant had 38, while shooting over 50% from the field. They played him one-on-one and zone, didn't matter. Fox Sports Charley Rosen reported, "[His] iso-game was irresistible—combining to score 18 points in 15 one-on-one forays. Even against zones, KD was able to fake, dance, spin and pull to create highly makeable shots. Against man-to-man defenses, Durant was even more of a dreadnaught point-maker."

Sounds pretty good. Real Rosen's whole story here.

Even the NFL

The National Football League has been considered impregnable in recent years. The one goose that would continue laying golden eggs no matter what happened to the world around it. The Clarion Content has been warning of sports comeuppance for sometime now, and in our view, even the NFL will not be immune.

We saw this note in the New York Times today, that lends further credence to this belief.

"The N.F.L.’s season ticket sales have declined for the third year in a row. Depending on final numbers, season ticket sales will be down between 1 percent and 2 percent, said Eric Grubman, the league’s executive vice president for business ventures.

He said overall attendance declined to 16.6 million last year from 17 million in 2008."